10 things Anwar must do

Anwar Ibrahim

By now the Cabinet has been appointed and while there are fresh faces, no one I have spoken to expects any drastic changes from the norm especially as Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak is bound to face pressure from Umno delegates at the forthcoming Umno general assembly.

We seem to be going from one election to another and delaying much needed change accordingly. And as everyone knows by now, Umno delegates don’t at all represent the common voice of the Malays but posture to make it appear as if they do.

Thus it was that when Abdullah Ahmad Badawi got a massive mandate from the people in the 2004 elections, obtaining over 90 percent of parliamentary seats, he refrained from taking measures he promised because his advisers told him there will be a backlash from Umno delegates.

Ah, well, history repeats itself, especially when you don’t learn from it, and one can expect the pressures from within Umno to stop any push towards major change which will benefit the country as a whole without descending into the morass of race, religion and language.

For Pakatan Rakyat, very much still in opposition, the fight continues in earnest. But if it wants to wrest Putrajaya from Barisan Nasional, there are a number of things it has to do and its de facto leader Anwar Ibrahim will have to bear these in mind.

Pakatan would have made much more headway in the elections just past if they had focused on even half of this. But no matter, there is always still time and it is necessary to build on the gains if Malaysians are to see the two-party system emerge.

To my mind, a two-party system emerges only when there has been at least one change of power. That has not happened yet and here is our list of 10 things that Anwar must do if he wants a fair chance of Pakatan forming the next government.

This follows upon our list of 10 things that Najib must do  if he wants BN to win again which we highlighted last week.

1. Accept the election results or challenge it in court soon

malaysia-ge-13-general-election-ballot-box-thumbnailThe elections are over. We all know about election fraud. If there is any, pull out the evidence and take it to the courts. Or forever remain silent and move on to the future. Yes, by all means take steps to stop gerrymandering if you can but there is no point lamenting endlessly that some constituencies have many times the number of constituents than others. Take over government and change that.

2. Stop the 505 rallies

There is no point going around the country complaining about election fraud now. If it’s the intention to  mobilise effort, it is much better to do so later when Pakatan has reorganised itself along the lines we have suggested. Then it will serve a purpose because you can tell the people what Pakatan is going to be doing in terms of the next elections and get their buy-in and support.

3. Focus on the next election

The question on most people’s lips post-election is: What now for Pakatan? How is it going to win the next election? That’s what the focus should be for Pakatan – the next election and how it plans to win it. Obviously it can’t win without support from Sabah or Sarawak and obviously it can’t win without more support from rural areas in peninsular Malaysia. That will be the two points Pakatan must address plus hold on to current seats.

4. Devise a strategy for Sabah and Sarawak

borneoClearly the Sabah and Sarawak strategy is not so great. Contesting under the banners of peninsular parties in the eastern states is a recipe for disaster outside of the handful of highly urbanised areas. There is a great need for grassroots organisation and for people who can work that. That can come only from local people and local parties. Pakatan needs to find such people and parties, not easy yes, but impossible to make inroads otherwise. They wasted five years earlier, better not waste another five.

Here’s something that can be promised Sabah and Sarawak if Pakatan comes to power – a deputy prime minister (say two and half years each) from the two states.

5. Think about reaching out more to the rural areas

Yes, BN won with less than the popular vote, yes Pakatan had the majority of votes but everyone knows about rural seats being smaller in terms of number of constituents. It’s been that way always with changes to the Federal constitution to make the difference worse. So what is Pakatan doing to get the rural vote? Bad government is out as Kedah has shown. PKR needs to work the ground much more, while DAP and PAS need to widen their appeal to different communities instead of steadfastly remaining in their own pockets of strength. If rural votes are over-represented it makes good strategic sense to go and put more efforts there.

6. Announce the candidates list for the next election now

pakatan-rakyatPakatan needs drastic change too. Why not make the bold and unprecedented move of announcing their entire slate of candidates – state and parliamentary seats – say six months from now and by as much as four and half years before the next election. That will give all their candidates a long enough time to work the constituency and for the aspiring wakil rakyat to shake hands with his constituents at least once before elections. Imagine the kind of competitive advantage that a move like that will give Pakatan and the kind of opportunity to work the ground, which will be the key determinant of the results of the next election.

7. Announce a full shadow Cabinet at federal and state level

Follow up number six above with an announcement of the full state and federal cabinet line-up, including for prime minister and deputy prime minister/s and chief ministers. That is a fantastic way to keep the current government in check by offering constructive criticism, suggestions and where necessary brickbats for measures that may be taken. That also signals to the general public that there is enough cohesiveness in the opposition coalition to form a viable, reasonable government. Do these two within six months.

8. Spell out in one clear voice how you will be different

pakatan-rakyat-pas-pkr-dap-logoReally, we can’t have PAS saying it wants an Islamic state and hudud and DAP talking of a Malaysian Malaysia. Focus on the common things that everyone wants and think about what it is the people themselves want. And think about what is right and wrong from a moral and ethical point of view. Evolve this common platform, everyone stick with it and move on and away from these contentious issues between the coalition partners.

The trick is to take a common stance on substantive issues and where there is little likelihood of a change in positions, simply compromise. PAS is not likely to get hudud and the official religion will be Islam nevertheless – just live with that. To go into an election with mixed messages is dangerous for everyone.

9. Make a clear stance on corruption and education

corruption-handcuffed-ringgitAfter the last election, Anwar promised to overthrow an elected government with a majority of 28 seats by getting frogs to jump parties. That’s clearly wrong. Take a firm stance against both criminal and moral corruption and stick with it come what may. The moral compass must always point in the right direction.

Similarly, education is not to be played around with for political purposes as has been done in the past. Indications are clear that most Malaysians want the quality of English to improve, for instance. Yet, Pakatan has not supported the teaching of Maths and Science in English in a clear concession to pressure groups. Good education must not be compromised for political expediency.

10. Work with the government where you can

shake-hands-businessmenThere are times when the government does good things. There is much to support in the government and economic transformation programmes. Where it is good, there is no harm but every benefit in supporting it wholeheartedly. Pakatan should seek to work together with the government actively and cultivate good relations with the federal government for the benefit of the three states it controls. So long as it does not compromise on its own, hopefully high ideals and principles, that should be fine.

If Pakatan assiduously puts these suggestions into practice, then it has a better than even chance of winning the next time around, especially if Najib does nothing about his list of 10.

guna-question-timeP Gunasegaram is founding editor of KiniBiz. He says the hope for change must always spring eternal in the human breast, with apologies to Alexander Pope.

 

 

 

Singapore’s Changi seeks growth with gold, tuna

singapore-changi-airport-20Changi Airport, Southeast Asia’s largest freight airfield, plans to attract more gold bars, tuna and vaccines to Singapore as it seeks to increase handling of high-value cargo to make up for slowing trade.

The airport may process seven percent more cargo by volume for pharmaceutical products such as vaccine and test drugs, as well as perishable goods including tuna and meat this year, James Fong, assistant vice president of cargo and logistics development at Changi Airport Group (Singapore) Pte. Drugs are one of the three biggest items handled by value, he said.

“An underlying demand for these things is growing with the rise of the Asian middle class,” Fong said in a May 15 interview. “People want higher-value, higher-quality food. Demand in North Asia is growing fast.”

The airport is offering 50 percent rebates on landing fees since the start of the year to help cargo airlines struggling with lower demand amid sluggish economies in the US and Europe. Changi is enticing carriers of high-yield cargo with a tax-free maximum-security vault to store valuable art, gold and gems, as well as Southeast Asia’s biggest refrigerated facilities for perishable goods.

Economic growth in the Asia-Pacific region will boost household incomes, increasing the need for higher-quality food and luxury items, Fong said. The size of the middle class may jump almost fivefold in 20 years, according to Airbus SAS.

Global trade

Airlines haul about US$5 trillion (RM15.1 trillion) of cargo annually, accounting for a third of global trade by value, according to International Air Transport Association.

changi-airport-singapore-cargoThe global cargo market may increase 2.7 percent this year, benefiting Asian carriers the most as they are the biggest operators, according to IATA. The industry shrank two percent in 2012 for a second consecutive year, and airlines were filling less than half of their cargo capacity because of weak demand in the US and Europe, according to the group.

Changi Airport handled 434,000 tonnes of cargo in the first quarter, 2.2 percent less than a year earlier. Air freight may recover next year, Fong said.

“With a more affluent population, cargo should pick up,” said Siyi Lim, an OCBC Investment Research analyst in Singapore. “The increase may not be pronounced yet because it takes time to ramp up. The factors are there but it ultimately comes down to costs. It depends on how competitive Changi wants to be.”

Fine arts

Singapore Freeport opened in 2010 as a free-trade zone and offers maximum-security storage services with direct access to Changi Airport for valuables including wines, fine arts, diamonds and gold. The facility will expand as all the space has been leased.

Full-year growth in handling such valuable goods is expected to reach about 16 percent, helped by a 55 percent surge in the first quarter, Fong said.

James Fong

James Fong

Changi Airport has the region’s biggest facility to handle all goods that require different temperatures, ranging from frozen meat to flowers and vaccines, Fong said.

Coolport@Changi, the 8,000 square-meter (86,000 square- foot) facility operated by ground handler SATS Ltd., has rooms with temperatures ranging from minus 28 degrees Celsius (minus 18 Fahrenheit) to plus 19 degrees. The area handles about 18,000 tons of goods a month. It is Southeast Asia’s only such facility certified under international standards.

SATS shares climbed 0.9 percent to S$3.26 (RM7.85) as of 9:43am in Singapore trading, set for the highest close in six years.

A second temperature-controlled center run by Dnata, another ground handler at Changi Airport, is expected to open later this year, Fong said.

Indonesian tuna

The ability to handle fresh produce at Changi Airport has helped attract business for transshipment of seafood and meat products from Australia and New Zealand to north Asia and Europe, Fong said. The airport mainly handles seafood from Indonesia that is flown to Japan and China, he said.

tuna-market-shipping“A lot of tuna in Japan is shipped from Indonesia,” Fong said. “Those go to the famous fish market in Tokyo, they auction it and it comes back again at a higher price.”

Shipping lines including Maersk Line have won cargo business from airlines amid the global slowdown as customers sought to cut costs when transporting items such as notebooks, televisions and wine. There are signs that some shippers may be turning to airfreight as the industry tests new methods, Fong said.

“Speed is our biggest selling point,” IATA director general Tony Tyler said in December. “But it comes with a price that is many times more expensive than shipping by sea.”

The airport is working with an unspecified airline and meat producers in New Zealand to ship meat by both air and sea to cut the transport time by about half, Fong said. Meat is now typically transported by ship alone and takes about a month from New Zealand to Europe, he said.

“For perishable goods, the longer you are in the mode of transport, the lesser value you’ll get by the time you get to the destination,” Fong said. The new offering is “something we’re quite excited about because we see more shift this way.”

- BLOOMBERG

 

Yuan near 19-year high on capital inflows speculation

China EconomyChina’s yuan traded within 0.2 percent of a 19-year high on speculation capital inflows will spur appreciation.

China may face “large scale” inflows of speculative funds in the next few years, which will drive asset prices higher and push up consumer prices, Su Ming, deputy head of the Ministry of Finance’s research institute for fiscal science, said in an article published in today’s People’s Daily newspaper. New-home prices rose last month in 68 of 70 cities tracked by the government, data showed May 18.

“When the property outlook is improving, more people tend to bring capital into China,” said Jonathan Cavenagh, a strategist at Westpac Banking Corp. in Singapore. “Authorities see that as a risk, creating a stronger exchange-rate environment than what they are happy with.”

The yuan rose 0.03 percent to 6.1401 per dollar as of 10:36am in Shanghai, according to China Foreign Exchange Trade System prices. It touched 6.1307 on May 9, the strongest level since the government unified official and market exchange rates at the end of 1993. The currency was 0.97 percent stronger than the central bank’s reference rate, which was little changed today at 6.1998.

The spot rate is allowed to diverge from the fixing by a maximum one percent and China intervenes in the currency market to prevent a breach of the trading band. The nation’s foreign- exchange reserves, the world’s largest, climbed US$131 billion (RM395.7 billion)  in the first quarter to a record US$3.44 trillion.

chinaeconomicgrowth‘Large pressures’

The jump in the reserves is large enough for China to be judged a currency manipulator by the US Treasury, Tim Condon, Singapore-based head of Asia research at ING Groep NV, wrote in a note today. The nation faces “relatively large pressures” from capital inflows and yuan appreciation, Ji Zhihong, an official at the research bureau of the People’s Bank of China, was quoted as saying in the People’s Daily.

In Hong Kong, the yuan rose 0.04 percent to 6.1419 per dollar, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Twelve-month non-deliverable forwards gained 0.06 percent to 6.2380, a 1.6 percent discount to the onshore exchange rate.

One-month implied volatility in the yuan, a measure of expected moves in the exchange rate used to price options, fell two basis points, or 0.02 percentage point, to 1.79 percent.

- BLOOMBERG

Asian stocks head to 5-year high on US optimism

investment-banking-earning-moneyAsian stocks rose the first time in three days, with the regional gauge heading for the highest close since June 2008, after US consumer sentiment topped estimates and Tokyo Electric Power Co led Japanese utilities higher.

Li & Fung Ltd, a supplier of toys and clothing that gets 63 percent of its sales in the US, gained 2.2 percent in Hong Kong. Osaka Gas Co advanced to the highest in more than five years after the US conditionally approved a Texas liquefied natural gas project partially owned by the energy supplier. Tokyo Electric Power soared 14 percent after the Yomiuri newspaper said it will apply to restart reactors.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 1.3 percent to 144.28 as of 10:13am in Hong Kong. The measure surged more than 11 percent this year, led by Japanese shares, as US data signaled improvement in the economy and the Bank of Japan and Prime Minister Shinzo took steps to counter deflation.

“The numbers continue to confirm a recovery,” Mark Matthews, head of Asia research at Bank Julius Baer & Co, said in a Bloomberg TV interview in Hong Kong. His firm has US$282 billion (RM852.1 billion) under management. This year’s advance in equities “will continue. It’s a steady improvement in the data and the next step is to see stronger evidence of a consumer recovery. Stocks are not too expensive”.

Gains in 2013 left the regional benchmark gauge trading at 14.5 times estimated earnings on May 17, compared with 15.1 for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index and 13.5 for the Stoxx Europe 600 Index, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Japan’s Topix Index advanced 1.3 percent to 1,269.67, heading for the highest close since August 2008. The gauge climbed 48 percent this year, more than every other major equity index. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index rose 1.2 percent to the highest since June 2008.

Hang Seng advances

hang-seng-index-stock-rise-profit-upHong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 1.6 percent. The Shanghai Composite and Taiwan’s Taiex Index each added 0.1 percent. South Korea’s Kospi Index and New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index both added 0.2 percent. Singapore’s Straits Times Index was little changed.

Futures on the S&P 500 were little changed today. The measure closed at a record on May 17 as an index of US leading indicators climbed in April and consumer confidence rose to the highest level in almost six years.

The Conference Board’s gauge of the outlook for the next three to six months climbed 0.6 percent last month. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment rose to 83.7, the highest since July 2007.

- BLOOMBERG

Thailand growth slows, rate-cut pressure rises

Thailand’s growth was slower than economists estimated in the first quarter as exports cooled, boosting the case for the central bank to cut interest rates.

Gross domestic product increased 5.3 percent in the three months through March from a year earlier, after expanding a revised 19.1 percent in the previous quarter, the National Economic and Social Development Board said in Bangkok today. The median of 13 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey was six percent.

Kittiratt Na-Ranong

Kittiratt Na-Ranong

Finance Minister Kittiratt Na-Ranong, who has led calls for lower rates, said May 10 the monetary authority must cut by more than a quarter of a percentage point or implement capital controls to slow inflows that last month drove the baht to a 16- year high. The Bank of Thailand reduced the benchmark in October and has held it since, citing risks to financial stability.

“There is room for the central bank to lower the rate, given the benign inflation and signs of cooling in the economy,” Benjarong Suwankiri, an economist at TMB Bank Pcl in Bangkok, said before the data release. First-quarter GDP growth coming in below estimates would “increase the possibility of them easing monetary policy at the meeting next week.”

The baht slipped 0.1 percent to 29.89 per dollar as of 9:32am in Bangkok. It has retreated almost four percent from a high of 28.56 against the dollar in April, the strongest level since 1997 and is still Asia’s best-performing currency this year, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Policy makers around the world have moved to counter currency appreciation and stimulate growth, with central banks in Vietnam, India, South Korea, Australia and Europe cutting borrowing costs this month. The Thai central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee is scheduled to meet on May 29.

Prasarn Trairatvorakul

Prasarn Trairatvorakul

Resilient economy

Governor Prasarn Trairatvorakul signaled on May 9 he may be inclined to cut interest rates if economic growth starts to cool. The central bank last month raised its gross domestic product estimate for a second time this year to 5.1 percent from 4.9 percent earlier, and cut its inflation forecast to 2.7 percent.

Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra’s administration has raised minimum wages and handed incentives to rice farmers and first-time car buyers to spur growth after the floods of 2011, and plans to spend 2 trillion baht (RM202.4 billion) on high-speed rail links to major cities from Bangkok over the next seven years. Fitch Ratings raised its assessment of Thailand in March, citing a resilient economy and a more stable political climate.

Automakers Nissan Motor Co  and Toyota Motor Corp have increased production in Thailand as local sales rose to a record last year. Still, the baht’s appreciation is hurting exports, Commerce Minister Boonsong Teriyapirom said in an interview May 1, as overseas sales increased 4.5 percent in the first quarter compared with an 18.2 percent gain in the previous three months. The government’s target for this year is as much as nine percent.

Thailand’s economy shrank a seasonally adjusted 2.2 percent last quarter from the three months through December, when it expanded a revised 2.8 percent, the agency said today.

- BLOOMBERG

Ringgit trades lower as demand yet to pick up

ringgit-malaysia-generic-2.0The ringgit was traded slightly weaker against the US dollar in the early session today as demand has yet to pick up, a dealer said.

At 9 am, the local unit was quoted at 3.0235/0265 to a greenback from Friday’s close at 3.0200/0240.

However, the ringgit was traded higher against other major currencies.

The local currency appreciated against the Singapore dollar to 2.4025/4058 from 2.4027/4076 on Friday and rose against the yen to 2.9397/9441 from 2.9417/9471 last week.

The ringgit also strengthened against the British pound to 4.5866/5921 from Friday’s 4.5976/5046 close and was sharply higher against the euro at 3.8770/8818 from 3.8846/8901 last week.

- BERNAMA